The global rise of populism has led to concerns about an increase in levels of state repression.
This was the case with the election of Rodrigo Duterte in May 2016. Since then, thousands of Filipinos, mostly coming from poor socio-economic backgrounds, have been killed through Extra-Judicial Killings (EJKs) obviating due process and the presumption of innocence.
Supporters label the war on drugs colloquially known as “OplanTokhang” as a necessary governmental program to address a prevalent social problem that may affect long-term prospects for economic growth and social stability. The Duterte administration also justifies the program as a necessity to prevent the country from becoming a narco-state.
Critics decry the use of police vigilantism as an indication of creeping authoritarianism that may ultimately render the Philippines as a failed state where vigilante justice will replace the rule of law. Domestic opposition mounts against the Philippine war on drugs, but the program remains active as it is endorsed by the public showing that close to 8 out of 10 Filipinos support the violent anti-narcotics campaign of Duterte.
Because of the everyday nature of violence visible in the Philippines today, international human rights organisations have condemned the Duterte administration for initiating a war against his own people short of genocide, compelling the International Criminal Court, in the Hague, to initiate preliminary investigations as to the atrocities committed by the Philippine government.
Under this backdrop, there is a wide degree of variation on the occurrence of EJKs at the sub-national level. An interesting dynamic is at play where some Philippine provinces encounter more killings, while other provinces remain spared from the lethal violence carried out by the Philippine National Police.
What accounts for this unexplained and interesting variation? According to the results of my study, two predominant theories help explain the political phenomenon.
